China’s regulatory and planning body, NDRC, has lifted its target for photovoltaic installations from 15 GW to 21 GW by 2015. According to a recently published report from IMS Research this new aim has been postulated in the latest version of China’s Five-Year-Plan for the PV industry. In the short term, photovoltaic installations in China are set to reach more than 4 GW in the second half of this year. This might partially compensate for the shrinking demand in European markets that are expected for the second half of 2012 and help to support the huge over-capacity in production added by Chinese suppliers in the last two years. According to IMS Research’s new report, China’s production capacity for crystalline silicon modules reached 32.6 GW in the first quarter of 2012.
Commercial installations are forecasted to increase their market share by 13 % in 2012, while a large pipeline of ground-mounted utility scale PV stations located in China’s desert regions is waiting for construction. “A more diverse range of system types will emerge,” commented Frank Xie, Senior PV Market Analyst and report author. “IMS Research predicts that 1 GW of Golden Sun projects will be completed by year end, and that medium and large commercial rooftop installations will reach 850 MW in 2012.”
The latest decision of NDRC might indeed create good opportunities for PV suppliers in China. “Although the Chinese government has implemented tighter project approval regulations in 2012, system integrators have submitted a huge amount of applications. With the prospect for 5 to 7 GW of PV installations in 2012, PV module shipments to installations in China in 2012 are predicted to be more than double that of 2011,” said Xie. “Inverter companies will have similar opportunities.”