China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has announced the solar energy target of 110 GW to be reached by 2020. This is a 20 % reduction to the previously communicated target of 150 GW.
According to the new solar energy target of the Chinese National Energy Administration there are going to be 60 GW of distributed generation solar energy. The remaining 50 GW shall be made up by 45 GW ground-mounted utility-scale systems and 5 GW of CSP. Today approximately 15 GW of distributed generation are installed as well as already 45 GW of ground-mounted utility-scale system and 5 GW of CSP.
In Q1- Q3/2016 27 GW were newly installed. Another 5 to 8 GW could be possibly installed in Q4/2016. This means by the end of 2016 China could be home to approx. 75 to 78 GW which translates into an average installation volume of below 9 GW per year through 2020. If the recently semi-officially communicated reduction of feed-in tariffs becomes reality, this will most likely trigger a surge of installations to profit from the better tariffs in 2016. This way one might wonder how much could be left for the remaining 3 years of the 13th Five-Year-Plan (FYP) period.
The Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA) considers this 110 GW target as a “minimum” target, meaning that there is room for more. The target set by the 12th FYP (2011-2015) for example was 35 GW and has been exceeded by 21 %. The official wording also suggests that the 110 GW will be exceeded. The question might be to which extent.
Philipp Kronsbein / AECEA